Date: 08.05.2012
Station of robust noise monitoring of anomalous seismic processes
(RNM ASP station)
The diagram of the station of robust noise monitoring of anomalous
seismic processes (ASP) is given in Fig. 1. The basic difference of the
station from all other known prototypes is that steel bores of suspended
oil wells filled with water are used in it for receiving seismic
information from the deep strata of earth. Unit 1 is the equipment for
receiving of seismic acoustic noise from the deep strata of earth, based
on a hydrophone installed at the head of a 3-6 kilometers deep well.
Seismic acoustic signals are analyzed by means of the above-discussed
technology and corresponding estimates are determined in Unit 2. Unit 3
is standard seismic equipment, which allows one to register and assess
the intensity of seismic vibrations. The function of Unit 4 and the
server of monitoring center are to identify the results of ASP
monitoring at the RNM ASP station with registered earthquakes at seismic
stations of seismological service.
Fig. 1.
Station of robust noise monitoring of ASP (RNM ASP station)
At the
initial stage, corresponding estimates of seismic signals received from
hydrophones of Unit 1 are determined by means of corresponding algorithms in
Unit 2. Those estimates are forwarded to the monitoring server, where they are
saved. Estimates form and are saved both in Unit 2 and on the server during the
long period of time.
At the same time, estimates of seismic signals coming from ground seismic
equipment 3 are also determined during the time and
registered in the same manner. This process continues to the moment when current
estimates of the signals received from corresponding sensors will differ from
previous ones by a value, which is higher than the set threshold levels.
At the same time corresponding information is sent to the server of the
monitoring center. Thus, information on the beginning of anomalous seismic
processes forms in the system at the start of the time from
the estimates of seismic acoustic signals received at the output of hydrophones.
Standard ground seismic stations, meanwhile, register corresponding signals and
determine magnitudes of seismic vibrations only at the start of the time (intense
vibrations). That information is also sent both to Unit 4 and to the server,
where the difference between moments of receiving the corresponding signals in
Units 2 and 3 respectively is determined. Training and identification of ASP are
carried out simultaneously both in Unit 4 and on the server in the operation
process, with known technologies of recognition being used, including neural
network technologies. After a certain training period on the server and in Unit
4, the minimum time of registration of the moment of the expected earthquake by
standard seismic stations is determined as a result of monitoring of ASP.
Results
of monitoring experiments at the station of RNM ASP at Qum Island in the Caspian
Sea
An
experimental version of RNM ASP station was installed at the head of 3,500 m
deep suspended oil well # 5 on 01.07.2010. The well is filled with water and for
this reason, a BC 312 hydrophone is used as a sensor. Fig. 2 shows the external
appearance of the station after its installation. A building was constructed
afterwards to protect the station from the sun, wind and other external factors.
Fig. 2.
Appearance of the station after installation
The
station includes the following equipment:
System
unit;
Fastwell Micro Pc controller;
GURALP
LTD CMG 5T seismic accelerometer;
BC 321
hydrophone, made in Zelenograd;
Reinforcing and normalizing elements;
Siemense MC35i terminal forming an Internet channel via GPRS.
The
following earthquakes have been registered by Azerbaijan seismic stations during
the operation of the station from 01.07.2010 to 15.01.2011.
09.10.2010,
town of Masally 00:58:11, M:3.5, d:12 kм
11.10.2010,
town of Shirvan, 22:50:23, M:3.9, d:37 kм
17.10.2010,
town of Imishli, 07:20:38, M:3.4, d:18 kм
20.11.2010,
Caspian Sea, 05:05:48-08:29:29, M:3.5, d: 50 km
25.11.2010,
Baku, Sangachal, 09:15:21, M: 3.04, d: 36 km
Given below in the Fig. 3a, 3b, 3c, 3d, 3e are the results of
ASP monitoring by means of RNM ASP. The records show that the estimates between
the useful signal and the noise of the seismic acoustic signal received at the
output of the hydrophone increase sharply over 5-10 hours before the earthquake,
which continues till the end of the earthquake. It should be noted that the
distance from a RNM ASP station to remotest earthquakes is over 200-300 km.
(Arrows on the charts indicate the time of the beginning of an earthquake.)
Fig. 3f demonstrates records of the estimate of cross-correlation function
between
the useful signal and
the noiserelated
to the earthquakes in Azerbaijan (21.01.2011, 01:58:54), Georgia (23.01.2011,
07:51:23), Tajikistan (24.01.2011, 06:45:29) and on the border with Turkey,
Armenia and Iran (3 earthquakes - 25.01.2011, 03:56:12, 04:02:32, 07:40:04). As
is clear from the results of the given charts of ASP monitoring, their lead over
the beginning of the earthquake is over 5-10 hours. For instance, Fig. 3g gives
the expanded record of the estimate of cross-correlation function during the
earthquake in Georgia (near Kutaisi) on 23.01.2011. It is obvious from the chart
that the beginning of ASP 07:51:23 was clearly registered 5-6 hours before the
beginning of the earthquake. The charts show Baku time (GMT +4).
Experimental research demonstrated that in the analysis of seismic acoustic
signals, clear identification of the beginning of the time by
means of conventional technologies is impossible. Application of robust
technology of noise analysis of estimates ,
and
,
on the other hand, allow one to detect the beginning of origin of anomalous
seismic processes reliably and adequately.
Thus, initial results of experiments show that it is possible to perform
monitoring within a radius of over 200-300 km 5-15 hours before the earthquake
by means of RNM ASP. Those results imply that the difference in time between ASP
origin and its critical state depends on the location of the earthquake center.
One can assume, based on the obtained results, that, when spreading from the
earthquake center, seismic acoustic waves are reflected due to the resistance of
certain upper strata of the earth and change horizontally. One can also assume
that sufficient intensity of those waves allows them to travel to long distances
(300-500 km).
Start of
ASP approximately at 12:10 24.11.2010, earthquake at 09:15:21 25.11.2010
Fig. 3f.
‘Qum Island’ RNM ASP station, in Azerbaijan (21.01.2011, 01:58:54), in Georgia
(23.01.2011, 07:51:23.0), in Tajikistan (24.01.2011, 06:45:29.0) and on the
border between Turkey and Iran (3 earthquakes 25. 01.2011, 03:56:12.; 04:02:32.;
07:40:04.)
Fig. 3g.
‘Qum Island’ RNM ASP station, Estimates of cross-correlation function,
23.01.2011, 07:51:23
Georgia,
near Kutaisi M: 4.5 d: 10 km
These experimental results show the expediency of building such
stations of RNM ASP. In consideration of this fact, similar stations have been
built at well # 427 of Shirvan Oil, at a well of Siazan Oil, in the town of
Naftalan, and in the town of Neftchala. Four or five RNM ASP stations will make
it possible to determine the direction and coordinates of the earthquake center.
In the long term, integration of RNM ASP stations with standard
seismic stations will allow one to create robust intellectual systems of noise
monitoring, which will be capable of carrying out short-term earthquake
forecasting with sufficient degree of reliability and adequacy after a certain
training period.
Conclusion
Obtained experimental results allow one to conclude that the lead in the time of
registration of ASP origin by seismic acoustic stations of RNM ASP over widely
used standard seismic equipment is conditioned by two factors. First,
high-frequency seismic acoustic waves, which arise at the start of origin of
anomalous seismic processes deep below the surface of earth, spread through some
strata horizontally in the form of noise, which reaches the steel bore of the
oil well at a depth of over 3-6 kilometers. Serving as acoustic channels, the
steel bores filled with water transmit seismic acoustic noise at the velocity of
sound to the surface of earth, where it is received by means of a hydrophone in
Unit 1. At the same time, infra-low frequency seismic waves gain the required
capacity in a certain amount of time, when seismic processes reach their
critical state and an earthquake occurs, which is why they are registered by
seismic receivers of standard ground equipment much later. Second, application
of robust noise technology allows one to analyze noises as information carriers,
which makes it possible to register anomalous seismic processes at the start of
their origin, and their detection by means of estimates of characteristics of
useful signals starts considerably earlier. Thus, those two factors made it
possible to detect the indication time of the start of ASP of the coming
earthquake by means of robust noise analysis of obtained seismic acoustic data
considerably earlier that it is registered by stations of seismological service.
An earthquake is usually detected no less than 5-10 hours before its beginning,
which can give a chance to warn the population in due time about the danger of a
powerful earthquake. It was proved after the start of operational testing of the
second station at the 4,400 m deep well # 427 in Shirvan Oil on 20 November,
2011. First experimental monitoring results given below in Fig. 4 were obtained
by this station on 23.10.2011 and 24.10.2011 more than 10-12 hours before the
beginning of the earthquake. The similar record was made at the Qum Island
station. (X is time axis, Y is axis of values of noise variance.)
Shirvan RNM ASP station, 23
October 16:00:25. East Turkey M=5.6
“Qum Island” RNM ASP station,
23 October 16:00:25. East Turkey M=5.6
Shirvan RNM ASP station prolonged
earthquakes, 24 October 06:57:59. East Turkey M=3.8
“Qum Island” RNM ASP Station, prolonged
earthquakes, 24 October 06:57:59. East Turkey M=3.8
The experiments demonstrated that determination of the
coordinates and magnitude of an expected earthquake requires creation of
networks consisting of at least four stations and their integration with
standard seismic stations. For that end, another four stations were built in
2011 in addition to the station at Qum Island in the Caspian Sea: in the town of
Shirvan and in the town of Neftchala in the south of the country, in the town of
Siazan in the north and in the town of Naftalan in the west.
With all five stations operating, results of processing of seismic
acoustic signals will be sent at the moment of monitoring of ASP origin, i.e. in
the transition from the time cell into
the time cell ,
from each station to the server of the monitoring center by means of all the
proposed technologies.
The starting point of indication time of ASP monitoring will be
transmitted from each RNM ASP to the server, and sets of differences in
monitoring time of all seismic stations will be determined.
After every ASP monitoring cycle, all stations form sets on the server of the
monitoring center based on the obtained results and their system analysis is
carried out. Results of analysis of obtained experimental data, as well as
results of tests and operation of equipment of RNM ASP stations will be used to
determine final requirements with regard both to hardware and to models,
algorithms and software of the server and the whole system in general. First of
all, they must be capable of determining the coordinates of an earthquake center
within a radius 300-400 lm with sufficient accuracy, using the difference in
time of receipt and indication of ASP between five stations. After determination
of the distance between the earthquake center and the stations, software of the
system must allow one to calculate the estimate of minimum magnitude of an
expected earthquake.
It should be noted in conclusion that the system can also be used for monitoring
of the latent period of formation of volcanic eruptions.
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